Should you fix your energy tariff in autumn 2026? Fixes undercut the price cap — and January's cap may jump another 20%

Most households pay for energy on a standard variable tariff — the one limited by Ofgem's price cap. You end up on it automatically: you moved into a new home, never picked a tariff, or your old fix ended. The cap is recalculated every three months, so your bill moves up and down with the market. A fixed tariff is the opposite: the unit rate and standing charge are written into a 12- or 24-month contract and do not change, whatever happens to the cap.

What does the cap cost now?

From 1 October a typical home on the cap pays £1,723 a year: electricity at 26.32p per kWh and gas at 7.97p, plus standing charges of 54.83p and 29.68p a day (average direct debit rates). More detail on the new rates and the zero VAT on electricity is in today's news story.

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How much cheaper are fixes right now?

According to MoneySavingExpert's update of 29 September, the cheapest fixes sit 3.5–3.8% below the October cap: E.on Next's 12-month fix at minus 3.8%, Fuse Energy's 24-month at minus 3.7%, E.on Next's 24-month at minus 3.5%. For typical use that is around £60–65 a year. Not much. The main argument for fixing is not this discount — it is January.

What happens to the cap in January?

Ofgem will announce the January–March 2027 level in late November. MoneySavingExpert's late-September prediction is another rise of roughly 20%, to about £2,085 a year for a typical home. That is a forecast, not a decision: MSE itself calls such estimates "crystal-ball gazing", and wholesale prices over the coming weeks will decide. But that is exactly the logic of fixing: lock in a price below the October cap and the January increase — whatever it turns out to be — will not touch you. The flip side: if the cap falls instead, your fix becomes the expensive option, and leaving it early will most likely cost you an exit fee.

What to check before you fix

First — the exit fee. Current fixes typically charge £25–£100 per fuel, so up to £200 for gas and electricity together. MoneySavingExpert suggests favouring fixes with low exit penalties: lock in for peace of mind, but keep a cheap way out if the market turns. Second — compare more than the headline price: many of the cheapest fixes are now the longer 18–24 month ones, which also tie you in for longer. Third — look at both components: a fix can have a lower unit rate but a higher standing charge, which makes it poor value for low-usage homes.

How does switching work?

The switch itself takes up to 5 working days, and your gas and electricity are never cut off — the only thing that changes is who sends the bill. After agreeing a contract you have a 14-day cooling-off period to change your mind without penalty. Take a meter reading on the day of the switch and give it to the new supplier, so the old one cannot overcharge you. If the switch drags past 5 working days through the supplier's fault, you are automatically owed £40 in compensation. One more Citizens Advice rule worth knowing: if your current fixed deal has 49 days or less left, you can leave it without any exit fee.

Who should not fix?

Those who expect prices to fall and are happy to take the risk: if the January forecast does not materialise and the cap drops, people who stayed on it win. Those planning to move home in the coming months: a fix is tied to your address and supplier, you cannot always take it with you, and the exit fee is real money. And those on special tariffs — cheap overnight electricity for charging a car, for example: a generic fix may work out dearer, so run your own numbers.

The short version

If you are on a standard tariff and want predictable bills this winter, a fix 3–4% below the cap with a small exit fee looks sensible: October's rise cannot be undone, but a fix shields you from January's. If you are willing to watch the market, you can wait for late November, when Ofgem announces the January level — though the cheap fixes may be gone or repriced by then. The best way to compare tariffs is against your own last 12 months of usage, which is in your supplier's app or online account.

Help with bills this winter is a separate topic: the £150 Warm Home Discount and the Winter Fuel Payment for pensioners.