Bank of England rate decision on 17 September: three of nine are already voting for a rise

At midday on Thursday 17 September the Bank of England announces its Bank Rate decision. The rate is 3.75% and has been held there since the meeting of 30 July, when the Monetary Policy Committee split 6-3: six for a hold, three — Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill — for a 0.25 percentage point increase. The day before, at 7am on Wednesday 16 September, the ONS publishes August inflation. It is the last data point the Committee sees before voting.

What exactly is published on 17 September?

Two documents at noon: the Monetary Policy Summary carrying the decision, and the minutes showing how each member voted. There is no Monetary Policy Report in September — only four of the eight 2026 meetings come with one: 5 February, 30 April, 30 July and 5 November. September is a "short" meeting, so the number to read is the vote split: it shows how close the Committee is to turning.

Why is a rise being discussed rather than a cut?

Because inflation has turned upwards. Annual CPI was 2.6% in June and 2.9% in July. Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, stayed at 2.6%; services eased from 3.6% to 3.4%; food and non-alcoholic drinks rose just 1.3%, the smallest contribution from food since September 2021. The push came almost entirely from housing and household services — gas and electricity, after July's Ofgem price cap change.

In July the Committee said in plain terms that it expects inflation to rise further "later this year" as higher energy costs feed through to bills. The six who voted to hold argued that a pause buys time to see the evidence while preserving the option to move later.

What lands on Wednesday, the day before?

August inflation, at 7am on 16 September. Another increase strengthens the hand of the three voting for a rise; a reading at or below 2.9% makes another hold more likely. From 1 October a new Ofgem price cap adds 4% to typical energy bills, so the energy component will stay in the autumn numbers either way.

Who feels the decision immediately?

Anyone whose mortgage is tied to Bank Rate. Trackers move automatically, usually from the next monthly payment; standard variable rates move when the lender decides, which in practice is quickly. If you are on a fix, nothing changes until your deal ends — your rate is written into the contract. But the deal you will be choosing when that fix expires is priced off this decision.

Why is the mortgage rate higher than 3.75%?

Because Bank Rate is the price of money for banks, not for you. The Bank's own figures put the effective rate on newly drawn mortgages at 4.45% in July, up from 4.35% in June, while the rate on the whole outstanding stock was 3.97%. A new borrower is paying almost 0.7 percentage points above Bank Rate — and that gap widened over the month rather than narrowing.

Volumes are falling: net mortgage lending dropped to £4.3bn in July from £7.7bn, with 56,100 approvals for house purchase. Remortgage approvals went the other way, rising to 34,500 as borrowers came off expiring fixes.

What does the decision mean for savings?

The gap there is starker. The effective rate on new household time deposits was 4.21% in July, down from 4.30% in June. Money simply sitting in current accounts and instant-access accounts earned an average of 1.65% on the outstanding balance. That is 2.5 percentage points a year for doing nothing — £250 on every £10,000.

What is worth doing before Thursday?

Check the end date of your fix, in the mortgage offer or the annual statement. Under the Mortgage Charter, signed by 47 lenders covering roughly 90% of the market, you can lock in a new deal up to six months before your current one ends, and ask to switch to a better equivalent from the same lender if one appears before it starts. Reserving a rate commits you to nothing — you can walk away from it.

Savings are the same job, faster: moving cash from a current account into a fixed-term account or an ISA takes an evening, and new-deposit rates have now fallen for three months running.

When are the next rate decisions?

After 17 September come 5 November, with a full Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December, the last meeting of the year. In between, on 28 October, the Chancellor delivers the Autumn Budget — the second big financial date of the season.

Every upcoming deadline, bank holiday and decision date is in the ONLYWAY calendar, day by day with explanations.

Read also: Your mortgage fix is ending: how to lock a rate six months early · The Autumn Budget lands on 28 October