UK population has almost stopped growing: net migration down by two thirds, births at a 43-year low

The Office for National Statistics published its mid-2025 population estimates on 1 October — the first full picture of what the change in migration policy has done to the country's demography. The UK population reached 69.5 million (69,483,900), up 227,700 people, or 0.3%, over the year. That is the slowest rate of increase since mid-2020.

Net migration fell by two thirds in a year

Migration is the main reason for the slowdown. In the year to mid-2025 net international migration was 222,900, against 651,700 a year earlier. Immigration was 886,200 — around 410,000 fewer arrivals than the previous twelve months (1,296,500). Emigration was 663,400, slightly up on 644,800.

In plain terms: arrivals shrank by close to a third, departures barely moved. This is the direct effect of the 2024–2025 tightening — the higher Skilled Worker salary threshold, the ban on dependants for most students and care workers, and the closure of overseas care-worker recruitment.

Births at their lowest in at least 43 years

The other half of the story is natural change, of which there is almost none. There were 652,400 births — the lowest in at least 43 years of records and 9,700 down on the year. Deaths rose by 1,600 to 647,500. Natural change added just 4,900 people to the whole country.

So migration accounted for 98% of the 227,700 increase. Without it the UK population would be essentially flat.

Where it grows and where it shrinks

England — 58,834,800, up 0.39%. Scotland — 5,545,500, up 0.04%. Northern Ireland — 1,928,400, up 0.03%. Wales — 3,175,200, down 0.09%: the only part of the UK with fewer people than a year earlier.

Ageing faster than it arrives

The median age rose to 40.9 years. The number of people aged 65 and over grew by 1.5–2.1% depending on the nation, while the under-16 population fell by 0.9–1.6%. The old-age dependency ratio stands at 285 people of pensionable age per 1,000 of working age.

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What it means in practice

These figures cover the year to mid-2025, so they are roughly a year behind the present, not a snapshot of today. The direction, though, is clear enough, and three things follow from it for anyone living here or planning to come.

Political pressure on migration is working and produces a number the government can show — so there is no reason to expect visa rules to loosen soon. At the same time, falling births and a growing older share mean the economy will keep running short of workers: the labour shortage is not going away, while the channels for filling it have been narrowed deliberately.

For renters and buyers the news is mildly good: inflow into the country has slowed sharply, easing one component of pressure on prices — though housebuilding lags far enough behind that this alone will not bring prices down.