UK job vacancies are lower than in any year since 2014: what the ONS figures of 15 September mean if you are looking for work

The Office for National Statistics published its labour market figures at 7am on Tuesday 15 September. There are 702,000 job vacancies in the UK for June to August, 8,000 fewer than in the previous quarter. Outside the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, the last time the count was 702,000 or lower was August to October 2014. Unemployment is steady at 4.9%, but the number of people on a payroll has fallen by 145,000 over the year. Private sector pay is growing at 2.9% a year — more than twice as slowly as in the public sector.

How many vacancies are there, and why does 702,000 matter?

702,000 is an early estimate for June to August 2026, down 8,000 (1.1%) on March to May. The quarterly move itself is small: vacancies have fallen by only 16,000 since the start of the year and, in the ONS wording, have "remained broadly flat". What matters is the level. The ONS notes explicitly that, outside the pandemic period, the last time there were 702,000 or fewer vacancies was August to October 2014 — twelve years ago.

For anyone job hunting, that translates into something simple: more applicants per advert, longer selection processes, and employers less willing to negotiate on salary.

Has unemployment gone up?

The unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over is 4.9% for May to July 2026. That is up 0.2 percentage points on the year, while the ONS describes the change on the quarter as "largely unchanged". The employment rate for 16 to 64 year olds is 75.1%, down 0.1 percentage points on the year. Economic inactivity is 20.9%, down 0.1 points both on the year and on the quarter.

By survey measures, in other words, the picture is almost static. The movement shows up in a different set of numbers.

Why are payroll numbers falling while unemployment barely moves?

Pay and payroll figures do not come from a survey. They come straight from HMRC, where every employer reports every payment. In July 2026 there were 30.2 million people on a payroll — 19,000 fewer than in June and 101,000 fewer than a year earlier. The early estimate for August is also 30.2 million, but down 26,000 on the month and 145,000 on the year. The ONS warns that August figures are provisional and likely to be revised next month.

The gap with the unemployment rate exists because someone who leaves employment does not automatically become unemployed: they may move into self-employment, into study, into retirement, or out of the statistics altogether. Workforce jobs stood at 36.7 million in June 2026, 48,000 fewer than in March. Public sector employment, by contrast, rose by 33,000 over the year to 6.21 million.

How fast is pay rising — and why is the public sector twice as fast?

Regular pay excluding bonuses grew 3.5% a year across the whole economy in May to July 2026. The gap between sectors is unusually wide: 2.9% in the private sector against 6.3% in the public sector. Including bonuses, total pay grew 3.9%.

The practical point for anyone weighing up an offer: the headline "average pay is up 3.5%" barely applies to a private employer. A rise of around 3% is the market, not generosity; anything below 2.9% is below the private sector average.

Is pay beating inflation?

Yes, but not by much. Adjusted for CPIH, regular pay rose 0.6% a year in May to July and total pay 0.9%. Measured against CPI — the index used for benefit uprating and watched by the Bank of England — real growth was 0.8% and 1.1% respectively.

On a £35,000 salary, real growth of 0.6% is about £210 a year, under £18 a month. Inflation was 2.9% in July; the August figure is published on Wednesday 16 September at 7am.

How many people are claiming unemployment benefits?

The Claimant Count — people claiming unemployment-related benefits or required to look for work — was 1.692 million in August 2026, up on both the month and the year.

The two measures should not be confused. The Claimant Count includes people who are working but earning little and claiming Universal Credit with a job-search requirement. The 4.9% unemployment rate is survey-based and uses the international definition: out of work, having looked for work in the last four weeks, and available to start within two.

What does this mean for the rate decision on 17 September?

The Bank of England announces its Bank Rate decision at noon on Thursday 17 September. The rate has been 3.75% since 30 July, when the vote split 6–3 with three members backing an increase.

Today's figures argue against a rise: weakening hiring and private sector pay slowing to 2.9% are exactly the loosening in labour market pressure the committee said it was waiting for. The last word, though, belongs to the August inflation figure published the day before, on Wednesday at 7am.

What should you do if you are job hunting right now?

First, claim on the day you lose the job, not when savings run out. Universal Credit runs from the date you submit the claim, backdating is capped at one month and allowed only in narrow cases, and the first payment takes around five weeks. New Style Jobseeker's Allowance — £95.55 a week if you are 25 or over, £75.65 if you are 18 to 24 — ignores savings entirely and is paid for up to 182 days if you have Class 1 National Insurance contributions for the two previous tax years. It can be claimed alongside Universal Credit.

Second, if you are on a Skilled Worker visa the clock is measured in days, not months. After you lose the job the Home Office curtails your permission to 60 days, or to whatever is left on the visa if that is less. In that window you need a new sponsor and a new application, a switch to another route, or departure.

Third, do not pay for a "free consultation". The free, official line for employment questions is ACAS, 0300 123 1100, weekdays 8am to 6pm.

How reliable are these figures?

The ONS attaches a warning to the release: "Caution should be taken when drawing conclusions from short-term changes, and we advise users to focus on long term movements in the data." The Labour Force Survey, which produces the unemployment and employment rates, suffered from low response rates for several years; in this release the ONS says response levels "have shown clear improvement, with responses now close to their pre-coronavirus pandemic level", but still recommends reading the LFS alongside other indicators — HMRC payroll data, the Claimant Count and workforce jobs.

In practice: the 702,000 vacancies figure and the HMRC payroll fall of 145,000 carry more weight than a one- or two-tenths move in the unemployment rate.

When is the next data?

August inflation lands on Wednesday 16 September at 7am. The rate decision is at noon on Thursday 17 September. The next labour market release is 20 October. The Chancellor delivers the Autumn Budget on 28 October.

All the dates that matter are collected in the ONLYWAY calendar, day by day with explanations.

Read also: Made redundant: how much you are owed · Bank of England announces Bank Rate on 17 September