State pension triple lock to change from April 2030: what it means for payments

The government is changing the rule that lifts the UK State Pension every April. On 6 October 2026 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) added a factsheet to its published analysis: from April 2030 the triple lock as it works today will end, and the third part of the formula — growth in average earnings — will be replaced.

What exactly changes in the triple lock from April 2030?

The third element changes: instead of earnings growth, the formula will use the amount needed to return or maintain the value of the State Pension relative to earnings.

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Today the basic State Pension and the full rate of the new State Pension rise by the highest of three figures: CPI inflation, 2.5%, or growth in average earnings.

From April 2030 the set becomes CPI inflation, 2.5%, or the amount required to return or maintain the pension's value against earnings. DWP states the effect plainly: the State Pension will rise in line with average earnings over time, rather than consistently growing faster than wages.

When was this announced and where are the numbers?

The DWP analysis "State Pension uprating analysis 2026" was first published on 29 September 2026, and the factsheet explaining the reform was added on 6 October 2026.

The modelling uses DWP's dynamic microsimulation model Pensim3, which projects from 2018 to 2100 using administrative data and the Family Resources Survey. The analysis covers Great Britain and uses the ONS 2024-based national population projections.

How much will the Treasury save?

DWP estimates savings of around £15 billion in 2039/40 and around £50 billion in 2049/50 in nominal terms.

In 2025/26 prices the same figures are smaller: £11 billion and £30 billion. DWP warns these are long-run estimates — they should not be used to derive savings for any single year, and they depend on assumptions about earnings, inflation, migration and mortality.

Does the reform affect people already drawing a pension?

Yes, but not before April 2030: until then current pensioners keep the existing triple lock uprating.

From April 2030 the adjusted rule applies to everyone — both future and current pensioners. DWP stresses that protection against inflation stays in place and the pension will continue to rise every year.

Will the State Pension get smaller?

No. In cash terms it will not fall: under the new formula the annual rise cannot be less than inflation or 2.5%.

What disappears is the guarantee of outpacing wages. Today, in years of fast price growth, the triple lock lifts the pension by more than earnings rise, so the pension's share of average earnings keeps climbing. After the reform that share is held at the level reached. The government has committed to the current rule for the rest of this parliament and says the full new State Pension will rise by over £2,000 a year and reach a record high relative to earnings in that time.

How much is paid now and what happens in April 2027?

The full new State Pension is currently £241.30 a week, around £12,548 a year.

The April 2027 uprating is still calculated under the existing rule. ONS put earnings growth for May to July 2026 at 3.9%, and September inflation is published on 21 October 2026 — the higher of the two wins. We set out the full calculation, including the tax side, in our piece on the State Pension and the frozen personal allowance.

What happens to pensioner poverty?

Under the adjusted rule, DWP projects relative pensioner poverty after housing costs falling from around 14% in 2024/25 to around 8% in 2049/50.

This is a projection under stated assumptions, not a forecast: the model isolates the uprating rule and does not account for behavioural responses or other policy changes.

What should you do now if you live in the UK?

The most useful step is to check your National Insurance record, because that is what decides the size of your future pension.

You need at least 10 qualifying years to get any new State Pension, and 35 qualifying years for the full rate if your National Insurance record started after April 2016. Contributions made in the EEA, Switzerland or a country with a social security agreement are added to your UK qualifying years when you claim. The "Check your State Pension forecast" service on GOV.UK shows your projection and any gaps.

If your retirement income is low, check Pension Credit separately — it is not tied to the triple lock and has its own rules. We explain who qualifies in a separate guide, and the UK pension system as a whole in our State Pension explainer.