Earned settlement: still no government response, and February 2027 is close

The consultation on reforming settlement closed on 12 February 2026. As of 17 October there is still no formal government response: the GOV.UK consultation page reads "We are analysing your feedback." The Home Secretary has said the new policy will be set out "later this year."

What is settled, and what is not?

The direction is settled: the standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain is to rise from five years to ten. Shabana Mahmood put it plainly in March 2026 — "the qualifying period for settlement should move, as a norm, from five years to ten." She named an exception in the same speech: some will earn settlement at or before five years, including public servants such as doctors and nurses.

What is not settled is the part that matters most to people already here: the transitional arrangements. They decide whether someone who arrived on the five-year route and is living on it now is caught by the ten-year rule.

Will those already in the UK keep the five-year route?

It is an option under discussion, not a decision. Giving evidence to the Commons Home Affairs Committee on 15 September 2026, Mahmood listed the transitional options, among them "passporting certain cohorts through — so no change, and they still qualify at five years." She presented it as one possibility, not settled policy.

At the same time a principle she called long-settled still applies: "the rules in force at the point of your application." In March 2026 she put it more bluntly: "That means applying any rule changes to those who are in the UK today but have not yet received settled status." So no one should count on the five-year route surviving automatically — only on the text of the policy when it comes.

Why does February 2027 matter?

Because it is the first point at which the reform meets real people. At the same 15 September session Mahmood said: "a large group of people who arrived in 2022, absent any change, would qualify in February 2027." That line explains why the government has promised the policy before the end of 2026 — after that it would be too late.

Is the reform aimed at people who arrived after 2021?

No cut-off date has been announced — not 2021, not any other. The years of sharp growth in migration do feature in the department's rhetoric: in March 2026 Mahmood spoke of low-skilled workers and their dependants who arrived between 2022 and 2024. But that is an explanation of motive, not a rule. Until a date appears in the policy text, any claim about "those who arrived after year X" is expectation, not law.

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What do the parliamentary committees say?

The two committees disagree, which is worth knowing.

The Commons Home Affairs Committee, reporting on 13 March 2026, did NOT recommend keeping five years for people already in the country: it noted that applying changes to people already in the system is "not unprecedented," while demanding that the government "carefully consider and set out clear mitigations — including suitable transitional arrangements."

The House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee, reporting on 23 June 2026, took the opposite view. It opposed the ten-year period and recommended the government "explore retaining the 5-year baseline" with a longer ban on access to public funds. It called retrospective application "manifestly unfair" and recommended that "any changes to settlement Rules should not be applied retrospectively to individuals already on a qualifying route."

Why has it taken so long?

Two reasons. Volume: the consultation drew more than 200,000 responses, and the Home Secretary acknowledged that analysing them and modelling the effects took longer than expected. And politics: Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20 July 2026, with Shabana Mahmood reappointed Home Secretary the same day.

What should you do now?

Nothing on the basis of rumour. Until the consultation response is published and the Immigration Rules are amended, the current rules apply, and an application is assessed under the rules in force on the date it is made. The one practical conclusion: if your five years are up in the coming months and you already meet the requirements, there is no reason to delay. Watch the GOV.UK consultation page and statements in Parliament — ONLYWAY NEWS will report as soon as the text appears.